Treasury leaks that the 60-day Iranian oil waiver will not be renewed

A Treasury official told two major buyers the 60-day Iranian oil waiver will not be renewed at expiry, ending the trial balloon Tehran spent the quarter treating as permanent. Iranian crude immediately re-discounted, the teapot stockpiles looked like foresight rather than glut, and Brent’s slide stalled on a risk premium that was declared dead a week ago. The sanctions architecture took a decade to build, was traded away for sixty days of ceasefire optics, and now snaps back — minus the credibility that the original regime relied on. Buyers who tested the waiver learned the rails. Those rails are still there. What returns is the prohibition, not the fear of it.