An IRGC fast-boat near-miss reminds the market a ceasefire is not peace

IRGC fast boats came within 200 meters of a loaded VLCC transiting Hormuz, forcing an emergency course change before peeling off — no shots fired, no ship seized, just a reminder delivered at 30 knots. Brent added a dollar in ten minutes, then gave it back by the close. The market has trained itself to discount exactly this kind of incident, which is precisely the incentive structure that produces more of them. A ceasefire binds the signatories; it does not bind the gunboats, the militias, or the commanders who answer to neither capital. The waterway is open the way an unlocked door is open. The ships go through. So does the risk.