Brent tests $70 as the glut narrative replaces the war premium

Brent traded below $70 for the first time since the blockade began, the desks that screamed $150 in May now pencilling in $60 by autumn. The war premium evaporated faster than the cargoes it displaced could be rerouted — floating storage is still circling, SPR releases are still arriving, and the overland pipelines built in a panic are still half-empty. A market that overpriced a shut strait is now underpricing an open one. The glut is real but temporary; it is the runoff of a crisis, not the geology of a boom. Oil is discounting the ceasefire holding forever. Nothing about this ceasefire is forever.