Iran sells crude at a 20% premium even as unsold barrels pile up at sea

Iranian crude is changing hands at a roughly 20% premium to benchmark even as a glut of unsold cargoes drifts offshore, buyers uncertain whether the 60-day sanctions waiver will be renewed. The paradox is the waiver itself: a two-month window is long enough to lift the cargo but too short to clear the legal risk. Iran is taxing its own uncertainty. A market that spent a decade pretending the sanctions architecture was permanent is now finding out it was a discount all along — and that the discount has a expiry date written into a waiver no one believes will hold.