Brent hits $125 as Hormuz tanker traffic falls below 60% of pre-crisis levels

Brent crude closed above $125 for the first time since 2022 after satellite data showed Strait of Hormuz tanker transits fell to 14 vessels per day, down from 25 before the crisis. Lloyd’s war risk premiums and Iran’s crypto tolls have made transit economically unviable for smaller operators. Only state-backed tankers with naval escorts — American, Chinese, and now Japanese — are moving at full volume. The rest of the market is finding alternate routes around Africa or shutting in production. Global spare capacity is under 2 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia could theoretically open the taps, but without OPEC there is no coordination mechanism and no political incentive. The market is on its own.